SK Sturm Graz v Club Brugge KV
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before SK Sturm Graz lost to Club Brugge KV 0–1, the SharpXI model made 6 confident calls on the player markets and 6 landed — the strongest being Christos Tzolis for 1+ shots total (93%, had 4). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
6 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christos Tzolis | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 4 | ✓ |
| Christos Tzolis | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Christos Tzolis | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Emanuel Aiwu | tackles | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Christos Tzolis | shots on target | 1+ | 70% | 3 | ✓ |
| Christos Tzolis | tackles | 1+ | 51% | 2 | ✓ |
| Emanuel Aiwu | fouls drawn | 1+ | 49% | 2 | ✓ |
| Emanuel Aiwu | fouls committed | 1+ | 40% | 4 | ✓ |
| Emanuel Aiwu | shots total | 1+ | 38% | 0 | ✗ |
| Christos Tzolis | sot outside box | 1+ | 21% | 1 | ✓ |
| Emanuel Aiwu | shots on target | 1+ | 15% | 0 | ✗ |
| Christos Tzolis | cards | — | 15% | Not booked | ✗ |
| Emanuel Aiwu | cards | — | 12% | Booked | ✓ |
| Emanuel Aiwu | sot outside box | 1+ | 1% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed Tackles Shots on target Sot outside box Cards
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 97% | 6 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 35% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 26% | 1 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on SK Sturm Graz v Club Brugge KV?
6 of its 6 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on SK Sturm Graz v Club Brugge KV?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.