Sporting CP v Eintracht Frankfurt
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sporting CP lost to Eintracht Frankfurt 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Randal Kolo Muani for 1+ shots total (80%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Jesper Lindstrøm for 1+ shots total (75%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randal Kolo Muani | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Randal Kolo Muani | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jesper Lindstrøm | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Daichi Kamada | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Eric Ebimbe | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sebastian Rode | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mario Götze | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Randal Kolo Muani | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tuta | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Daichi Kamada | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Djibril Sow | fouls committed | 1+ | 67% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mario Götze | fouls drawn | 1+ | 67% | 2 | ✓ |
| Luca Pellegrini | fouls committed | 1+ | 66% | 2 | ✓ |
| Eric Ebimbe | fouls drawn | 1+ | 66% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 58% | 7 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 43% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 38% | 3 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Eintracht Frankfurt 0–3 Sporting CP Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sporting CP v Eintracht Frankfurt?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sporting CP v Eintracht Frankfurt?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jesper Lindstrøm at 75% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.