Sporting CP v FC Kairat Almaty
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sporting CP beat FC Kairat Almaty 4–1, the SharpXI model made 13 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Luis Javier Suárez for 1+ shots total (96%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Morten Hjulmand for 1+ tackles (83%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
2 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Javier Suárez | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 4 | ✓ |
| Morten Hjulmand | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Eduardo Quaresma | tackles | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Iván Fresneda | tackles | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Morten Hjulmand | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Luis Javier Suárez | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luis Javier Suárez | shots on target | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luis Javier Suárez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
| Eduardo Quaresma | fouls committed | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Morten Hjulmand | fouls drawn | 1+ | 58% | 1 | ✓ |
| Iván Fresneda | fouls committed | 1+ | 56% | 0 | ✗ |
| Iván Fresneda | fouls drawn | 1+ | 56% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis Javier Suárez | tackles | 1+ | 50% | 1 | ✓ |
| Morten Hjulmand | shots total | 1+ | 48% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Shots on target Fouls drawn
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sporting CP v FC Kairat Almaty?
9 of its 13 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sporting CP v FC Kairat Almaty?
The most confident call it got wrong was Morten Hjulmand at 83% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.