Sporting CP v FC Kairat Almaty
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sporting CP beat FC Kairat Almaty 4–1, the SharpXI model made 8 confident calls on the player markets and 6 landed — the strongest being Luis Javier Suárez for 1+ shots total (80%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Eduardo Quaresma for 1+ fouls committed (59%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
2 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Javier Suárez | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 4 | ✓ |
| Morten Hjulmand | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Luis Javier Suárez | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luis Javier Suárez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
| Eduardo Quaresma | fouls committed | 1+ | 59% | 0 | ✗ |
| Morten Hjulmand | fouls drawn | 1+ | 58% | 1 | ✓ |
| Iván Fresneda | fouls drawn | 1+ | 56% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis Javier Suárez | shots on target | 1+ | 54% | 1 | ✓ |
| Iván Fresneda | fouls committed | 1+ | 48% | 0 | ✗ |
| Morten Hjulmand | shots total | 1+ | 47% | 1 | ✓ |
| Eduardo Quaresma | fouls drawn | 1+ | 46% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis Javier Suárez | cards | — | 37% | Booked | ✓ |
| Eduardo Quaresma | shots total | 1+ | 34% | 0 | ✗ |
| Morten Hjulmand | cards | — | 32% | Not booked | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots on target · Cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sporting CP v FC Kairat Almaty?
6 of its 8 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sporting CP v FC Kairat Almaty?
The most confident call it got wrong was Eduardo Quaresma at 59% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.