Tottenham v SK Slavia Praha
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Tottenham beat SK Slavia Praha 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Xavi Simons for 1+ fouls drawn (87%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Richarlison for 1+ fouls drawn (82%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
13 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavi Simons | fouls drawn | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Pape Matar Sarr | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Richarlison | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Randal Kolo Muani | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| João Palhinha | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mathys Tel | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mohammed Kudus | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Richarlison | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Randal Kolo Muani | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mathys Tel | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Archie Gray | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mohammed Kudus | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mathys Tel | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Xavi Simons | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 58% | 6 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 54% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 47% | No | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · Match goals
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Tottenham v SK Slavia Praha?
7 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Tottenham v SK Slavia Praha?
The most confident call it got wrong was Richarlison at 82% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.