Tottenham v Villarreal
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Tottenham beat Villarreal 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Tajon Buchanan for 1+ fouls drawn (84%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Pape Matar Sarr for 1+ fouls committed (79%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
10 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tajon Buchanan | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pape Gueye | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pape Matar Sarr | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Xavi Simons | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Richarlison | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Georges Mikautadze | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ayoze Pérez | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mohammed Kudus | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nicolas Pépé | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Destiny Udogie | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Santiago Mouriño | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 4 | ✓ |
| Pape Gueye | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Richarlison | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mohammed Kudus | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Tottenham v Villarreal?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Tottenham v Villarreal?
The most confident call it got wrong was Pape Matar Sarr at 79% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.