Viking FK v FC Bayern München
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Viking FK drew with FC Bayern München 3–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Harry Kane for 1+ shots total (98%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Luis Díaz for 1+ fouls committed (80%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
7 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Olise | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 3 | ✓ |
| Harry Kane | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 5 | ✓ |
| Luis Díaz | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lennart Karl | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ismael Saibari | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tom Bischof | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 4 | ✓ |
| Michael Olise | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Luis Díaz | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Konrad Laimer | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kristoffer Askildsen | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ismael Saibari | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tom Bischof | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luis Díaz | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Erik Botheim | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 19% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Viking FK v FC Bayern München?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Viking FK v FC Bayern München?
The most confident call it got wrong was Luis Díaz at 80% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.