Villarreal v FC København
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Villarreal lost to FC København 2–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Georges Mikautadze for 1+ shots total (97%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Ilias Akhomach for 1+ shots total (96%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georges Mikautadze | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ilias Akhomach | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tani Oluwaseyi | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pape Gueye | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ayoze Pérez | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Alberto Moleiro | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nicolas Pépé | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Manor Solomon | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yoram Zague | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mohamed Elyounoussi | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ilias Akhomach | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jordan Larsson | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pau Navarro | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jordan Larsson | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 63% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 42% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Villarreal v FC København?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Villarreal v FC København?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ilias Akhomach at 96% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.