Team and match goals — over/under, BTTS and the goals model
Match totals (over/under 2.5 goals), team goals and both teams to score are modelled from expected goals (xG), not raw scorelines. SharpXI fits attack and defence strengths across the league to price them.
How SharpXI models it
A Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson model, fit on team xG with recency weighting, estimates each team's attack and defence strength, home advantage and the low-score correlation. From that we derive over/under lines, team totals and BTTS. Goals is our most demanding market and we say so — it's the most efficiently priced market in football, and the track record shows the honest margin.
Go deeper: How we model team goals →
Where the value tends to sit
Value in goals markets comes from teams whose xG diverges from their results — over- or under-performing finishing that the market anchors to.
Championship team leaders this season
In the 25/26 Championship season, Coventry City led for goals a game at 2.11, ahead of Southampton (1.75) and Ipswich (1.74). That's against a Championship team average of 1.30. Per-match rates from completed matches, not odds.
Per-match rates across the league (25/26 season, completed matches) — the teams whose underlying numbers drive this market.
| Team | Per match |
|---|---|
| Coventry City | 2.11 |
| Southampton | 1.75 |
| Ipswich | 1.74 |
| Wrexham | 1.50 |
| Hull City | 1.49 |
| Middlesbrough | 1.49 |
| Derby County | 1.46 |
| Sheffield United | 1.43 |
Frequently asked
Does SharpXI use xG for goals markets?
Yes. The goals model is fit on team expected goals rather than raw goals, which is a less noisy signal of underlying attacking and defensive quality.
Why is goals one of the hardest markets to beat?
Goals are the most efficiently priced numbers in football — the world's modelling effort concentrates here, so the margin over the base rate is always slim, and in some leagues it doesn't clear the baseline at all. The Championship track record shows the honest number rather than hiding it.
SharpXI is a statistical tool, not a betting operator, and no model guarantees a result. The honest scoreboard is closing-line value over a large sample. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.