1. FSV Mainz 05 v HŠK Zrinjski Mostar
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Conference League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before 1. FSV Mainz 05 beat HŠK Zrinjski Mostar 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 6 landed — the strongest being Nelson Weiper for 1+ shots total (90%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Armindo Sieb for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
1 match on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armindo Sieb | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ben Bobzien | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nelson Weiper | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| William Bøving | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sota Kawasaki | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Paul Nebel | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Armindo Sieb | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Silvan Widmer | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nelson Weiper | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Dominik Kohr | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lennard Maloney | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dominik Kohr | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sota Kawasaki | tackles | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Armindo Sieb | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls committed Tackles Shots on target
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on 1. FSV Mainz 05 v HŠK Zrinjski Mostar?
6 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on 1. FSV Mainz 05 v HŠK Zrinjski Mostar?
The most confident call it got wrong was Armindo Sieb at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Conference League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.