AZ Alkmaar v AC Sparta Praha
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Conference League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AZ Alkmaar beat AC Sparta Praha 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Peer Koopmeiners for 1+ tackles (89%, had 6). Its clearest miss: Andy Irving for 1+ tackles (85%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
8 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Koopmeiners | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 6 | ✓ |
| Troy Parrott | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 9 | ✓ |
| Weslley Patati | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mees De Wit | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Andy Irving | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Elijah Dijkstra | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Weslley Patati | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ro-Zangelo Daal | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sven Mijnans | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Garang Kuol | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Weslley Patati | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ro-Zangelo Daal | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 4 | ✓ |
| Denso Kasius | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sivert Mannsverk | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- AC Sparta Praha 0–4 AZ Alkmaar Mar 2026
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AZ Alkmaar v AC Sparta Praha?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AZ Alkmaar v AC Sparta Praha?
The most confident call it got wrong was Andy Irving at 85% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Conference League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.