AZ Alkmaar v SC Dnipro-1
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Conference League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AZ Alkmaar beat SC Dnipro-1 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Jens Odgaard for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Myron Van Brederode for 1+ shots total (85%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
2 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jens Odgaard | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Vangelis Pavlidis | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mayckel Lahdo | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yukinari Sugawara | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tijjani Reijnders | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Myron Van Brederode | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jesper Karlsson | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mees De Wit | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Miloš Kerkez | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordy Clasie | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Maxim Dekker | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jens Odgaard | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jens Odgaard | shots on target | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yukinari Sugawara | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- SC Dnipro-1 0–1 AZ Alkmaar Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AZ Alkmaar v SC Dnipro-1?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AZ Alkmaar v SC Dnipro-1?
The most confident call it got wrong was Myron Van Brederode at 85% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Conference League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.