Basel v Fiorentina
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Conference League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Basel lost to Fiorentina 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Luka Jović for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Arthur Cabral for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
1 match on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur Cabral | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nicolás González | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 7 | ✓ |
| Luka Jović | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nicolás González | fouls drawn | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Giacomo Bonaventura | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jonathan Ikoné | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Giacomo Bonaventura | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 7 | ✓ |
| Josip Brekalo | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gaetano Castrovilli | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sofyan Amrabat | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Cristiano Biraghi | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 6 | ✓ |
| Igor Júlio | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Dodô | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 4 | ✓ |
| Gaetano Castrovilli | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Fiorentina 1–2 Basel May 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Basel v Fiorentina?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Basel v Fiorentina?
The most confident call it got wrong was Arthur Cabral at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Conference League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.