Cercle Brugge v Başakşehir FK
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Conference League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Cercle Brugge drew with Başakşehir FK 1–1, the SharpXI model made 9 confident calls on the player markets and 5 landed — the strongest being Miguel Crespo for 1+ fouls drawn (91%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Miguel Crespo for 1+ fouls committed (83%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
3 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Crespo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Miguel Crespo | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Miguel Crespo | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kazeem Olaigbe | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Miguel Crespo | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kazeem Olaigbe | tackles | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kazeem Olaigbe | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kazeem Olaigbe | fouls drawn | 1+ | 65% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kazeem Olaigbe | shots on target | 1+ | 57% | 1 | ✓ |
| Miguel Crespo | shots on target | 1+ | 30% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed Shots total Shots on target
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Cercle Brugge v Başakşehir FK?
5 of its 9 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Cercle Brugge v Başakşehir FK?
The most confident call it got wrong was Miguel Crespo at 83% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Conference League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.