FC Drita v AZ Alkmaar
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Conference League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC Drita lost to AZ Alkmaar 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 14 landed — the strongest being Peer Koopmeiners for 1+ fouls committed (94%, had 1). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
2 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Koopmeiners | fouls committed | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Troy Parrott | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sven Mijnans | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 6 | ✓ |
| Weslley Patati | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Peer Koopmeiners | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Isak Jensen | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mateo Chávez | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Weslley Patati | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mees De Wit | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 5 | ✓ |
| Mateo Chávez | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kees Smit | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kees Smit | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Weslley Patati | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Wouter Goes | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC Drita v AZ Alkmaar?
14 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC Drita v AZ Alkmaar?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Conference League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.