FC København v Chelsea
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Conference League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC København lost to Chelsea 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 5 landed — the strongest being Cole Palmer for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Moisés Caicedo for 1+ fouls committed (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
4 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Fernández | fouls committed | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Moisés Caicedo | fouls committed | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Cole Palmer | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Enzo Fernández | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cole Palmer | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Moisés Caicedo | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Christopher Nkunku | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tyrique George | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Shumaira Mheuka | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marc Cucurella | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pantelis Hatzidiakos | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Malo Gusto | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Enzo Fernández | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Birger Meling | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Chelsea 1–0 FC København Mar 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC København v Chelsea?
5 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC København v Chelsea?
The most confident call it got wrong was Moisés Caicedo at 94% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Conference League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.