Fenerbahçe v FC Spartak Trnava
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Conference League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Fenerbahçe beat FC Spartak Trnava 4–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Sebastian Szymański for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Sebastian Szymański for 1+ shots on target (73%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
4 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edin Džeko | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 7 | ✓ |
| Sebastian Szymański | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Dušan Tadić | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Fred | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Fred | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Fred | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sebastian Szymański | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Edin Džeko | shots on target | 1+ | 78% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sebastian Szymański | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Fred | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alexander Djiku | tackles | 1+ | 74% | 4 | ✓ |
| Edin Džeko | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sebastian Szymański | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dušan Tadić | fouls drawn | 1+ | 68% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Shots on target Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC Spartak Trnava 1–2 Fenerbahçe Oct 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Fenerbahçe v FC Spartak Trnava?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Fenerbahçe v FC Spartak Trnava?
The most confident call it got wrong was Sebastian Szymański at 73% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Conference League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.