HŠK Zrinjski Mostar v Aston Villa
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Conference League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before HŠK Zrinjski Mostar drew with Aston Villa 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Nicolò Zaniolo for 1+ fouls committed (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Jhon Durán for 1+ fouls committed (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
3 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhon Durán | fouls committed | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nicolò Zaniolo | fouls committed | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jhon Durán | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nicolò Zaniolo | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Moussa Diaby | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Douglas Luiz | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jacob Ramsey | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| John McGinn | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Matty Cash | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| John McGinn | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leander Dendoncker | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Matty Cash | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Douglas Luiz | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Leander Dendoncker | tackles | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed Shots total Tackles
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Aston Villa 1–0 HŠK Zrinjski Mostar Oct 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on HŠK Zrinjski Mostar v Aston Villa?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on HŠK Zrinjski Mostar v Aston Villa?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jhon Durán at 94% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Conference League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.