Jagiellonia Białystok v Ħamrun Spartans FC
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Conference League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Jagiellonia Białystok beat Ħamrun Spartans FC 1–0, the SharpXI model made 5 confident calls on the player markets and 2 landed — the strongest being Sergio Lozano for 1+ tackles (85%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Sergio Lozano for 1+ fouls committed (72%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
1 match on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Lozano | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sergio Lozano | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sergio Lozano | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sergio Lozano | fouls drawn | 1+ | 68% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sergio Lozano | shots on target | 1+ | 51% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls committed Fouls drawn Shots on target
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Jagiellonia Białystok v Ħamrun Spartans FC?
2 of its 5 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Jagiellonia Białystok v Ħamrun Spartans FC?
The most confident call it got wrong was Sergio Lozano at 72% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Conference League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.