Jagiellonia Białystok v Rayo Vallecano
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Conference League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Jagiellonia Białystok lost to Rayo Vallecano 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Isi Palazón for 1+ fouls drawn (91%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Pacha for 1+ fouls committed (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
2 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacha | fouls committed | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Isi Palazón | fouls drawn | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sergio Camello | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 4 | ✓ |
| Álvaro García | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Isi Palazón | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jorge de Frutos | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pacha | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sergio Lozano | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pathé Ismaël Ciss | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pep Chavarría | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Andrei Rațiu | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Unai López | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Luiz Felipe | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Unai López | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed Fouls drawn Shots total Tackles
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Jagiellonia Białystok v Rayo Vallecano?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Jagiellonia Białystok v Rayo Vallecano?
The most confident call it got wrong was Pacha at 94% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Conference League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.