Larne FC v FC St. Gallen 1879
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Conference League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Larne FC lost to FC St. Gallen 1879 1–2, the SharpXI model made 5 confident calls on the player markets and 2 landed — the strongest being Bastien Toma for 1+ shots total (85%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Bastien Toma for 1+ fouls drawn (76%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
3 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastien Toma | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bastien Toma | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bastien Toma | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bastien Toma | shots on target | 1+ | 57% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bastien Toma | tackles | 1+ | 56% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls committed Fouls drawn Shots on target Tackles
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Larne FC v FC St. Gallen 1879?
2 of its 5 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Larne FC v FC St. Gallen 1879?
The most confident call it got wrong was Bastien Toma at 76% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Conference League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.