Lech Poznań v 1. FSV Mainz 05
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Conference League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Lech Poznań drew with 1. FSV Mainz 05 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Benedict Hollerbach for 1+ fouls committed (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Jae-sung Lee for 1+ shots total (85%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
3 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benedict Hollerbach | fouls committed | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Benedict Hollerbach | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Pablo Rodríguez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nelson Weiper | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Luis Palma | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Paul Nebel | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jae-sung Lee | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Filip Jagiełło | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Silvan Widmer | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Dominik Kohr | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sota Kawasaki | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nikolas Veratschnig | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sota Kawasaki | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Dominik Kohr | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Lech Poznań v 1. FSV Mainz 05?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Lech Poznań v 1. FSV Mainz 05?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jae-sung Lee at 85% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Conference League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.