Lech Poznań v FC Lausanne-Sport
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Conference League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Lech Poznań beat FC Lausanne-Sport 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Theo Bair for 1+ shots total (94%, had 6). Its clearest miss: Pablo Rodríguez for 1+ shots total (85%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
3 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Bair | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 6 | ✓ |
| Luis Palma | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pablo Rodríguez | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Filip Jagiełło | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pablo Rodríguez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Filip Jagiełło | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis Palma | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luis Palma | tackles | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Robert Gumny | tackles | 1+ | 74% | 6 | ✓ |
| Pablo Rodríguez | tackles | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Filip Jagiełło | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Theo Bair | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Robert Gumny | fouls drawn | 1+ | 65% | 1 | ✓ |
| Robert Gumny | fouls committed | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Lech Poznań v FC Lausanne-Sport?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Lech Poznań v FC Lausanne-Sport?
The most confident call it got wrong was Pablo Rodríguez at 85% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Conference League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.