Omonia Nicosia v Pafos FC
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Conference League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Omonia Nicosia drew with Pafos FC 1–1, the SharpXI model made 13 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Stevan Jovetić for 1+ fouls drawn (90%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Mislav Oršić for 1+ tackles (74%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
4 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Jovetić | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mislav Oršić | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ivan Šunjić | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Stevan Jovetić | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ivan Šunjić | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mislav Oršić | tackles | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mislav Oršić | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mislav Oršić | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Stevan Jovetić | fouls committed | 1+ | 63% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mislav Oršić | shots on target | 1+ | 57% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ivan Šunjić | shots total | 1+ | 55% | 0 | ✗ |
| Stevan Jovetić | tackles | 1+ | 52% | 4 | ✓ |
| Stevan Jovetić | shots on target | 1+ | 51% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ivan Šunjić | fouls drawn | 1+ | 47% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Pafos FC 2–1 Omonia Nicosia Feb 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Omonia Nicosia v Pafos FC?
9 of its 13 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Omonia Nicosia v Pafos FC?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mislav Oršić at 74% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Conference League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.