Rayo Vallecano v KF Shkëndija
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Conference League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Rayo Vallecano beat KF Shkëndija 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 6 landed — the strongest being Gerard Gumbau for 1+ fouls committed (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Óscar Trejo for 1+ fouls committed (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
6 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Óscar Trejo | fouls committed | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gerard Gumbau | fouls committed | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sergio Camello | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 8 | ✓ |
| Óscar Trejo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Isi Palazón | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Álvaro García | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pacha | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pedro Díaz | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jorge de Frutos | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Isi Palazón | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Florian Lejeune | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 4 | ✓ |
| Unai López | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Fran Pérez | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pacha | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Rayo Vallecano v KF Shkëndija?
6 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Rayo Vallecano v KF Shkëndija?
The most confident call it got wrong was Óscar Trejo at 94% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Conference League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.