Rayo Vallecano v RC Strasbourg
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Conference League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Rayo Vallecano beat RC Strasbourg 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Ilias Akhomach for 1+ fouls drawn (91%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Samuel Amo-Ameyaw for 1+ fouls drawn (90%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
5 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilias Akhomach | fouls drawn | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ilias Akhomach | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jorge de Frutos | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Martial Godo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Isi Palazón | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Pedro Díaz | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Andrei Rațiu | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 5 | ✓ |
| Samir El Mourabet | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Óscar Valentín | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Unai López | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Florian Lejeune | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 7 | ✓ |
| Martial Godo | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alemão | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn Shots total Tackles
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- RC Strasbourg 0–1 Rayo Vallecano May 2026
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Rayo Vallecano v RC Strasbourg?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Rayo Vallecano v RC Strasbourg?
The most confident call it got wrong was Samuel Amo-Ameyaw at 90% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Conference League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.