Villarreal v Hapoel Be'er Sheva
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Conference League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Villarreal drew with Hapoel Be'er Sheva 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Yéremy Pino for 1+ fouls committed (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Manu Trigueros for 1+ shots total (85%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
7 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manu Trigueros | fouls committed | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yéremy Pino | fouls committed | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alex Baena | fouls committed | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| José Luis Morales | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Arnaut Danjuma | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Yéremy Pino | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alex Baena | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Manu Trigueros | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Samuel Chukwueze | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 5 | ✓ |
| Arnaut Danjuma | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Manu Morlanes | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Samuel Chukwueze | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Manu Morlanes | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yéremy Pino | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed Shots total Fouls drawn
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Hapoel Be'er Sheva 1–2 Villarreal Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Villarreal v Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Villarreal v Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
The most confident call it got wrong was Manu Trigueros at 85% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Conference League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.