Vitória SC v Mladá Boleslav
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Conference League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Vitória SC beat Mladá Boleslav 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being João Mendes for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Tomás Händel for 1+ tackles (85%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
7 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telmo Arcanjo | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 5 | ✓ |
| Gustavo Silva | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jesús Ramírez | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 6 | ✓ |
| João Mendes | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kaio César | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kaio César | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tiago Silva | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Telmo Arcanjo | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bruno Gaspar | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| João Mendes | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tiago Silva | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| João Mendes | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tomás Händel | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kaio César | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Vitória SC v Mladá Boleslav?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Vitória SC v Mladá Boleslav?
The most confident call it got wrong was Tomás Händel at 85% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Conference League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.