West Ham v AEK Larnaca
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Conference League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before West Ham beat AEK Larnaca 4–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Lucas Paquetá for 1+ fouls committed (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Danny Ings for 1+ shots total (85%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
4 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Paquetá | fouls committed | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jarrod Bowen | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gianluca Scamacca | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Danny Ings | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Maxwel Cornet | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Divin Mubama | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jarrod Bowen | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lucas Paquetá | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tomáš Souček | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gianluca Scamacca | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Maxwel Cornet | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Divin Mubama | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pablo Fornals | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lucas Paquetá | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed Fouls drawn Shots total
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- AEK Larnaca 0–2 West Ham Mar 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on West Ham v AEK Larnaca?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on West Ham v AEK Larnaca?
The most confident call it got wrong was Danny Ings at 85% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Conference League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.