AFC Wimbledon v Newport County
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AFC Wimbledon drew with Newport County 1–1, the SharpXI model made 4 confident calls on the player markets and 1 landed — the strongest being Zack Nelson for 1+ fouls drawn (66%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Zack Nelson for 1+ shots total (74%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
See the full player stats boardPlayer markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Nelson | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Zack Nelson | tackles | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Zack Nelson | fouls drawn | 1+ | 66% | 1 | ✓ |
| Zack Nelson | fouls committed | 1+ | 54% | 0 | ✗ |
| Zack Nelson | shots on target | 1+ | 37% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nathan Bishop | fouls drawn | 1+ | 14% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nathan Bishop | tackles | 1+ | 3% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nathan Bishop | fouls committed | 1+ | 1% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nathan Bishop | shots total | 1+ | 1% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nathan Bishop | shots on target | 1+ | 1% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed Shots on target
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AFC Wimbledon v Newport County?
1 of its 4 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AFC Wimbledon v Newport County?
The most confident call it got wrong was Zack Nelson at 74% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.