Barrow AFC v Port Vale
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Barrow AFC beat Port Vale 3–2, the SharpXI model made 6 confident calls on the player markets and 2 landed — the strongest being Connor Mahoney for 1+ tackles (81%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Ben Jackson for 1+ tackles (72%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
2 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Mahoney | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ben Jackson | tackles | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Connor Mahoney | fouls committed | 1+ | 67% | 1 | ✓ |
| Connor Mahoney | shots total | 1+ | 60% | 0 | ✗ |
| Connor Mahoney | fouls drawn | 1+ | 57% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ben Jackson | fouls drawn | 1+ | 57% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ben Jackson | fouls committed | 1+ | 45% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ben Jackson | shots total | 1+ | 39% | 3 | ✓ |
| Connor Mahoney | shots on target | 1+ | 26% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ben Amos | fouls drawn | 1+ | 18% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ben Jackson | shots on target | 1+ | 14% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ben Amos | tackles | 1+ | 3% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ben Amos | fouls committed | 1+ | 3% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ben Amos | shots total | 1+ | 1% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Fouls committed Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Barrow AFC v Port Vale?
2 of its 6 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Barrow AFC v Port Vale?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ben Jackson at 72% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.