Blackpool v Lincoln City
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Blackpool lost to Lincoln City 1–4, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being George Honeyman for 1+ fouls drawn (90%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Tom Bayliss for 1+ tackles (81%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
2 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Honeyman | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Robert Street | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
| Josh Bowler | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mason Melia | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tom Bayliss | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yunus Konak | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
| Josh Bowler | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| George Honeyman | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 5 | ✓ |
| Callum Elder | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 5 | ✓ |
| Andrei Coubiș | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Isaac Olaofe | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| CJ Hamilton | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| George Honeyman | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Josh Bowler | tackles | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn Shots total Tackles Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Blackpool v Lincoln City?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Blackpool v Lincoln City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Tom Bayliss at 81% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.