Burton Albion v Lincoln City
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Burton Albion lost to Lincoln City 0–1, the SharpXI model made 8 confident calls on the player markets and 3 landed — the strongest being Tendayi Darikwa for 1+ tackles (72%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Fábio Tavares for 1+ shots total (83%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
3 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fábio Tavares | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tendayi Darikwa | tackles | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ryley Towler | tackles | 1+ | 61% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tendayi Darikwa | shots total | 1+ | 60% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fábio Tavares | fouls drawn | 1+ | 57% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fábio Tavares | tackles | 1+ | 55% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fábio Tavares | fouls committed | 1+ | 52% | 1 | ✓ |
| Fábio Tavares | shots on target | 1+ | 50% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ryley Towler | shots total | 1+ | 49% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tendayi Darikwa | fouls drawn | 1+ | 41% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ryley Towler | fouls drawn | 1+ | 41% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ryley Towler | fouls committed | 1+ | 39% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tendayi Darikwa | fouls committed | 1+ | 36% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ryley Towler | shots on target | 1+ | 20% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed Shots on target
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Burton Albion v Lincoln City?
3 of its 8 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Burton Albion v Lincoln City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Fábio Tavares at 83% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.