Chelsea v AFC Wimbledon
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Chelsea beat AFC Wimbledon 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Nicolas Jackson for 1+ shots total (97%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Mason Burstow for 1+ shots on target (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
8 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Jackson | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marc Cucurella | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mason Burstow | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Noni Madueke | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 6 | ✓ |
| Mason Burstow | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nicolas Jackson | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Noni Madueke | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Conor Gallagher | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Enzo Fernández | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
| Conor Gallagher | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
| Conor Gallagher | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lesley Ugochukwu | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lesley Ugochukwu | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ian Maatsen | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Shots on target Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Chelsea v AFC Wimbledon?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Chelsea v AFC Wimbledon?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mason Burstow at 86% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.