Colchester United v Southampton
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Colchester United lost to Southampton 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Cyle Larin for 1+ shots total (92%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Cameron Bragg for 1+ tackles (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
See the full player stats boardPlayer markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Bragg | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Cyle Larin | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lewis Dobbin | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Leo Scienza | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 4 | ✓ |
| Leo Scienza | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Cyle Larin | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Flynn Downes | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ryan Manning | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ben Brereton Díaz | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kuryu Matsuki | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ashley Young | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ryan Manning | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Cyle Larin | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Flynn Downes | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Colchester United v Southampton?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Colchester United v Southampton?
The most confident call it got wrong was Cameron Bragg at 94% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.