Forest Green Rovers v Brighton
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Forest Green Rovers lost to Brighton 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Deniz Undav for 1+ shots total (97%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Kaoru Mitoma for 1+ shots total (83%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
7 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deniz Undav | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kaoru Mitoma | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kaoru Mitoma | tackles | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Deniz Undav | fouls drawn | 1+ | 66% | 0 | ✗ |
| Deniz Undav | fouls committed | 1+ | 65% | 1 | ✓ |
| Levi Colwill | tackles | 1+ | 61% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tariq Lamptey | tackles | 1+ | 61% | 1 | ✓ |
| Levi Colwill | shots total | 1+ | 60% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tariq Lamptey | shots total | 1+ | 60% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kaoru Mitoma | fouls committed | 1+ | 59% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kaoru Mitoma | fouls drawn | 1+ | 59% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tariq Lamptey | fouls drawn | 1+ | 56% | 1 | ✓ |
| Deniz Undav | tackles | 1+ | 55% | 1 | ✓ |
| Levi Colwill | fouls drawn | 1+ | 55% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Forest Green Rovers v Brighton?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Forest Green Rovers v Brighton?
The most confident call it got wrong was Kaoru Mitoma at 83% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.