Gillingham v Luton
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Gillingham lost to Luton 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Carlton Morris for 1+ shots total (89%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Harrison Ashby for 1+ tackles (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
See the full player stats boardPlayer markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton Morris | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nahki Wells | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 4 | ✓ |
| Kasey Palmer | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Harrison Ashby | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Carlton Morris | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kasey Palmer | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Liam Walsh | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Liam Walsh | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Carlton Morris | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Isaiah Jones | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kasey Palmer | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Hakeem Odofin | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Liam Walsh | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan Clark | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Fouls drawn
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Luton 3–2 Gillingham Aug 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Gillingham v Luton?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Gillingham v Luton?
The most confident call it got wrong was Harrison Ashby at 84% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.