Man City v Watford
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Man City beat Watford 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Jack Grealish for 1+ fouls drawn (91%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Sávio for 1+ fouls drawn (90%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
6 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Grealish | fouls drawn | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sávio | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Matheus Nunes | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Phil Foden | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 6 | ✓ |
| James Morris | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jérémy Doku | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Phil Foden | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ryan Porteous | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Imrân Louza | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vakoun Issouf Bayo | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tom Ince | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kwadwo Baah | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rico Lewis | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jack Grealish | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn Shots total Tackles
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Man City v Watford?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Man City v Watford?
The most confident call it got wrong was Sávio at 90% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.