Salford City v Doncaster Rovers
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Salford City lost to Doncaster Rovers 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Billy Sharp for 1+ shots total (97%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Ephraim Yeboah for 1+ shots on target (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
8 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ephraim Yeboah | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 1 | ✓ |
| Billy Sharp | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ben Woodburn | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ben Woodburn | fouls committed | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Billy Sharp | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ephraim Yeboah | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ephraim Yeboah | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ephraim Yeboah | fouls drawn | 1+ | 66% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ben Woodburn | fouls drawn | 1+ | 66% | 1 | ✓ |
| Billy Sharp | fouls committed | 1+ | 61% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ephraim Yeboah | tackles | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
| Billy Sharp | tackles | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ben Woodburn | shots total | 1+ | 60% | 3 | ✓ |
| Billy Sharp | fouls drawn | 1+ | 59% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Shots on target Fouls drawn
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Salford City v Doncaster Rovers?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Salford City v Doncaster Rovers?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ephraim Yeboah at 86% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.