Shrewsbury Town v Bolton Wanderers
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Shrewsbury Town lost to Bolton Wanderers 0–2, the SharpXI model made 12 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Jay Matete for 1+ tackles (81%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Charles Sagoe Jr. for 1+ shots total (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
5 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Sagoe Jr. | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jay Matete | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jordi Osei-Tutu | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jay Matete | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jordi Osei-Tutu | tackles | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Charles Sagoe Jr. | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Charles Sagoe Jr. | fouls drawn | 1+ | 67% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jay Matete | fouls committed | 1+ | 65% | 0 | ✗ |
| Charles Sagoe Jr. | shots on target | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordi Osei-Tutu | shots total | 1+ | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jay Matete | fouls drawn | 1+ | 57% | 1 | ✓ |
| Charles Sagoe Jr. | tackles | 1+ | 55% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jordi Osei-Tutu | fouls committed | 1+ | 43% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jay Matete | shots on target | 1+ | 28% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed Shots on target
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Shrewsbury Town v Bolton Wanderers?
8 of its 12 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Shrewsbury Town v Bolton Wanderers?
The most confident call it got wrong was Charles Sagoe Jr. at 84% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.