Shrewsbury Town v Notts County
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Shrewsbury Town drew with Notts County 3–3, the SharpXI model made 5 confident calls on the player markets and 3 landed — the strongest being Joshua Kayode for 1+ shots total (97%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Joshua Kayode for 1+ fouls drawn (66%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
7 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Kayode | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 3 | ✓ |
| Joshua Kayode | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joshua Kayode | fouls committed | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joshua Kayode | fouls drawn | 1+ | 66% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joshua Kayode | tackles | 1+ | 55% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target Fouls committed Fouls drawn Tackles
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Shrewsbury Town v Notts County?
3 of its 5 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Shrewsbury Town v Notts County?
The most confident call it got wrong was Joshua Kayode at 66% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.