Stockport County v Blackburn Rovers
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Stockport County lost to Blackburn Rovers 1–6, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Sammie Szmodics for 1+ shots total (97%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Lewis Travis for 1+ fouls committed (81%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
5 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuki Ohashi | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 6 | ✓ |
| Makhtar Gueye | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sammie Szmodics | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 3 | ✓ |
| Andreas Weimann | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jack Vale | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lewis Travis | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sammie Szmodics | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Arnór Sigurðsson | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tyler Onyango | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lewis Travis | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| John Buckley | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| John Buckley | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lewis Travis | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| John Buckley | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 5 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Shots on target Fouls committed Fouls drawn
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Stockport County v Blackburn Rovers?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Stockport County v Blackburn Rovers?
The most confident call it got wrong was Lewis Travis at 81% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.