Stoke City v Oldham Athletic
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Stoke City beat Oldham Athletic 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Djibril Soumaré for 1+ tackles (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Róbert Boženík for 1+ fouls drawn (90%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
See the full player stats boardPlayer markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Djibril Soumaré | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lamine Cissé | fouls drawn | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Róbert Boženík | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jun-Ho Bae | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Róbert Boženík | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sam Gallagher | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Róbert Boženík | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Calum Kavanagh | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bosun Lawal | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Million Manhoef | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lamine Cissé | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Svante Ingelsson | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Svante Ingelsson | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ethan Galbraith | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed Shots total
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Stoke City v Oldham Athletic?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Stoke City v Oldham Athletic?
The most confident call it got wrong was Róbert Boženík at 90% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.