Walsall v Leyton Orient
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Walsall drew with Leyton Orient 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Albert Adomah for 1+ tackles (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Charlie Crew for 1+ fouls drawn (76%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
1 match on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Adomah | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Idris El Mizouni | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Charlie Crew | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 5 | ✓ |
| Charlie Crew | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| James Morris | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Charlie Crew | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Idris El Mizouni | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alfie Gilchrist | tackles | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Idris El Mizouni | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Albert Adomah | fouls drawn | 1+ | 66% | 0 | ✗ |
| Charlie Crew | fouls committed | 1+ | 63% | 2 | ✓ |
| Albert Adomah | fouls committed | 1+ | 62% | 3 | ✓ |
| Albert Adomah | shots total | 1+ | 60% | 0 | ✗ |
| James Morris | fouls committed | 1+ | 56% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Fouls drawn Shots total Fouls committed
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Walsall v Leyton Orient?
7 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Walsall v Leyton Orient?
The most confident call it got wrong was Charlie Crew at 76% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.