Watford v Peterborough United
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Watford lost to Peterborough United 1–5, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Rocco Vata for 1+ shots total (97%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Martín Payero for 1+ fouls drawn (90%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
1 match on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rocco Vata | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 3 | ✓ |
| Edoardo Bove | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Amin Nabizada | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Edoardo Bove | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Martín Payero | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mamadou Doumbia | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 5 | ✓ |
| Edo Kayembe | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Michael Adu-Poku | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Othmane Maamma | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Harry Leonard | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 7 | ✓ |
| Rocco Vata | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Amin Nabizada | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Martín Payero | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Martín Payero | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 4 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Shots on target Fouls committed
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Watford v Peterborough United?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Watford v Peterborough United?
The most confident call it got wrong was Martín Payero at 90% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.