Wrexham v Cardiff City
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Wrexham lost to Cardiff City 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being George Dobson for 1+ tackles (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Sam Smith for 1+ shots on target (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
7 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Dobson | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yousef Salech | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matty James | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Josh Windass | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kieffer Moore | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 5 | ✓ |
| Sam Smith | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oliver Rathbone | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lewis O'Brien | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ryan Longman | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| George Thomason | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sam Smith | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yousef Salech | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Isaak Davies | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ryan Barnett | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Cardiff City 1–1 Wrexham Aug 2026
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Wrexham v Cardiff City?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Wrexham v Cardiff City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Sam Smith at 86% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.