York City v Crawley Town
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before York City lost to Crawley Town 0–2, the SharpXI model made 13 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Malcolm Ebiowei for 1+ shots total (84%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Stephen Duke-McKenna for 1+ fouls committed (69%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
See the full player stats boardPlayer markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Ebiowei | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Louie Watson | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Malcolm Ebiowei | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Stephen Duke-McKenna | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Malcolm Ebiowei | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Stephen Duke-McKenna | fouls committed | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Louie Watson | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Stephen Duke-McKenna | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Malcolm Ebiowei | fouls committed | 1+ | 67% | 1 | ✓ |
| Louie Watson | fouls drawn | 1+ | 66% | 1 | ✓ |
| Stephen Duke-McKenna | fouls drawn | 1+ | 66% | 2 | ✓ |
| Louie Watson | fouls committed | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
| Malcolm Ebiowei | shots on target | 1+ | 58% | 2 | ✓ |
| Louie Watson | shots on target | 1+ | 32% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed Shots on target
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on York City v Crawley Town?
10 of its 13 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on York City v Crawley Town?
The most confident call it got wrong was Stephen Duke-McKenna at 69% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.