Almere City FC v De Graafschap
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Almere City FC beat De Graafschap 3–1, the SharpXI model made 13 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Nils Eggens for 1+ shots total (91%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Reuven Niemeijer for 1+ shots total (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
5 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nils Eggens | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Reuven Niemeijer | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marley Dors | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jamie Jacobs | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 4 | ✓ |
| Emanuel Poku | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 6 | ✓ |
| Teun Gijselhart | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fedde De Jong | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Hamza El Dahri | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bas Huisman | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
| Milan de Haan | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nils Eggens | shots on target | 1+ | 60% | 0 | ✗ |
| Levi Schoppema | shots total | 1+ | 53% | 0 | ✗ |
| Reuven Niemeijer | shots on target | 1+ | 52% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marley Dors | shots on target | 1+ | 49% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- De Graafschap 2–2 Almere City FC May 2026
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Almere City FC v De Graafschap?
7 of its 13 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Almere City FC v De Graafschap?
The most confident call it got wrong was Reuven Niemeijer at 87% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.