Almere City FC v VVV-Venlo
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Almere City FC drew with VVV-Venlo 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Jeredy Hilterman for 1+ shots total (91%, had 12). Its clearest miss: Jorrit Smeets for 1+ shots total (65%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeredy Hilterman | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 12 | ✓ |
| Pascu | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ilias Alhaft | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 5 | ✓ |
| Lance Duijvestijn | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 8 | ✓ |
| Anthony Limbombe Ekango | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Özcan Yasar | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nick Venema | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
| Sven Braken | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Carl Johansson | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Soulaïman Allouch | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rajiv Van La Parra | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jorrit Smeets | shots total | 1+ | 65% | 0 | ✗ |
| Stije Resink | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 2 | ✓ |
| Álvaro Peña | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- VVV-Venlo 1–1 Almere City FC May 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Almere City FC v VVV-Venlo?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Almere City FC v VVV-Venlo?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jorrit Smeets at 65% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.