NAC Breda v RKC Waalwijk
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before NAC Breda beat RKC Waalwijk 4–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Elías Már Ómarsson for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Denilho Cleonise for 1+ shots total (77%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elías Már Ómarsson | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Leo Sauer | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kacper Kostorz | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dominik Janošek | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Oskar Zawada | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Silvester van der Water | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Richonell Margaret | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Raul Paula | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Clint Leemans | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Denilho Cleonise | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mohamed Ihattaren | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tim van de Loo | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Fredrik Jensen | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Elías Már Ómarsson | shots on target | 1+ | 65% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- RKC Waalwijk 5–0 NAC Breda Feb 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on NAC Breda v RKC Waalwijk?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on NAC Breda v RKC Waalwijk?
The most confident call it got wrong was Denilho Cleonise at 77% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.