NEC Nijmegen v Willem II Tilburg
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before NEC Nijmegen drew with Willem II Tilburg 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Koki Ogawa for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Başar Önal for 1+ shots total (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koki Ogawa | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kento Shiogai | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Bryan Linssen | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Emilio Kehrer | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lars Olden Larsen | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Başar Önal | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Amar Fatah | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Vito van Crooij | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Thomas Ouwejan | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kyan Vaesen | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sontje Hansen | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sami Ouaissa | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kodai Sano | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jesse Bosch | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Willem II Tilburg 1–4 NEC Nijmegen Aug 2026
- Willem II Tilburg 4–1 NEC Nijmegen Dec 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on NEC Nijmegen v Willem II Tilburg?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on NEC Nijmegen v Willem II Tilburg?
The most confident call it got wrong was Başar Önal at 91% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.